Weather Updates:
- Freeze protection services are currently active in Canada, and the Northern third of the United States, East of the Rocky Mountains. For shipments containing freezable freight, please ensure freeze protection is added. Note that this may result in additional charges and possible transit delays.
- Winter snowstorms are impacting many Northern states from Montana through the Upper Midwest into New England, including Maine. Snowfall accumulations range from around 3 inches in some areas to well over 12 inches in higher-impact zones. Transit times will experience delays across much of the Northern tier of the United States.
- UPS Christmas Cutoffs: The busiest parcel shipping season is starting and to ensure UPS packages arrive by Christmas in 2025, ship by December 19 for 3 Day Select, December 22 for 2nd Day Air, and December 23 for Next Day Air; Ground service deadline varies by location and should be verified for your shipping route. NOTE: Weather events will impact these cutoffs, and shippers should expect some minor impacts with recent storms.
- Rate Forecast: LTL contract rate forecasts softened from last month, now pointing to a 1.7% YOY increase for 2025. The 2026 outlook also eased, with rates projected to rise 2.7% YOY, down from the previously reported 3.0%.
- Holiday Transit Times: During the holiday seasons transit times slow down as freight surges, winter weather hits, and terminals run on shortened holiday schedules. Shippers remember to build in extra days and expect more variability in delivery performance through the end of the year.
- Diesel Rates: National diesel prices fell by $0.093 from last week, averaging $3.665 per gallon, $0.207 higher than the same time last year. The Rocky Mountain region experienced the largest decrease, down $0.167 to $3.498 per gallon.
- Rate Forecast: Spot rate forecasts improved to a 1.7% YOY increase, supported by shifts in capacity, volume, and for-hire job shedding. Contract rate expectations also ticked up from 1.1% to 1.2%, and the 2026 total truck rate outlook edged higher from a 1.8% to 1.9% YOY increase from last month.
- Market Activity: Spot load posts were up 151.0% from last week, and spot truck posts increased by 27.6%, primarily due to weather issues and the Thanksgiving and Christmas holiday rush. The Load-to-Truck Ratio (LTR) was up for vans, flatbeds and reefers.
- Outbound Tender Rejection Index (OTRI): The OTRI is spiking sharply, following historical seasonal trendlines. If the pattern holds, we will likely see a peak OTRI of 10+ occurring during the week of Christmas. The OTRI currently sits at 7.45, up from last week’s 6.33 figure.
- Dry Van: National van demand increased by 93.4% to a 9.92-1 LTR nationally, with the highest demand spread across most the United States, other than CA, IL, MI, NE, NH, OK and TN, exceeding 5.5+ to 1 LTR. The spot rate per mile (RPM) for dry vans is up $0.13 from November, averaging $2.22 nationally, with the Midwest holding the highest RPM at $2.35. VOTRI is surging this week, like 2024 where we saw a peak of nearly 9pts occurring during the week of Christmas. The VOTRI is at 7.26, up over one full point from last week’s value of 6.15.
- Dry Van Rate Forecast: 2025 loadings are projected to decline 0.4%, then hold flat in 2026. The 2025 dry van spot rate forecast improved to a 0.8% increase, while total truck rates eased slightly to a 0.6% YOY increase excluding fuel. The 2026 dry van total truck rate outlook is unchanged from last month, at a 1.6% YOY increase.
- Flatbed: National flatbed demand increased by 85.0% to a 27.81-1 LTR, with the highest demand in the Northwest, the Southeast, Central New England, MN, MT, SD and WV at over 18+ to 1 LTR. The flatbed spot RPM is up $0.05 from November, averaging $2.52 nationally, with the Southeast holding the highest RPM at $2.62. FOTRI is the lone mode to not show an increase this week. The FOTRI dipped to 11.78, down from last week’s value of 12.33.
- Flatbed Rate Forecast: The 2025 loadings outlook is unchanged at a 2.2% YOY increase, followed by a projected 0.3% decline in 2026. The 2025 flatbed spot rate forecast improved from a 2.2% to a 2.6% increase, while contract truck rates rose to a 1.7% YOY increase excluding fuel. The 2026 flatbed total truck rate outlook also strengthened from last month, now showing a 1.7% YOY increase.
- Reefer: National reefer demand increased by 104.4% to a 17.18-1 LTR nationally, with the highest demand in the Midwest and Western states, AR, IA, IN, MS, and WI at over 12+ to 1 LTR. The spot RPM for reefers is up $0.06 from November, averaging $2.60 nationally, with the highest rates in the Midwest at $2.94. ROTRI is also following the pattern of previous holiday seasons. The ROTRI currently sits at 15.92, up over 1.5 points compared to last week’s value of 14.32. If historic trends hold true, we will likely see a peak nearing or exceeding 22 points a few days before Christmas.
- Reefer Rate Forecast: The 2025 reefer loadings outlook is unchanged from last month, at a 0.6% YOY increase, with a 1.0% decline forecast for 2026. The 2025 reefer spot rate forecast has improved to a 0.8% increase, while contract truck rates are now projected to rise 1.0% YOY excluding fuel. The 2026 reefer total truck rate outlook calls for a 3.2% YOY increase.
- FBX Trends: Container rates were all up from last week with the average cost of an FBX01 container up 22% to $2,930, and the FBX global container average increasing 8% to $1,944. The FBX03 increased 2% from last week to $2,930.
- Port of LA: The port reported a 9.96% YOY volume increase from 23 scheduled vessels during the week of December 7, 2025. For the week of December 14, volume is projected to decrease 11.06% YOY from 19 scheduled vessels moving 96,270 TEUs.
There are no embargoes currently impacting our freight network.