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Market Update 9.3.26

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Weather:

  • ‌Heat and Storm-Driven Disruptions: Heat will remain a concern across portions of the South and interior U.S. this week, while scattered storms and heavy rainfall bring localized flooding risks to parts of the Gulf Coast, Midwest, and East. Tropical Storm Edouard has made landfall along the Texas-Louisiana coast, creating localized transportation disruptions in the Gulf region, though broader national freight network impacts are expected to remain limited (Weather.gov).

Small Parcel Updates:

  • Canada Post Weekends: Canada Post will introduce weekend parcel delivery in major markets by year-end, underscoring the growing importance of seven-day delivery networks as carriers compete for e-commerce volume and service differentiation (FREIGHTWAVES CP).
  • UPS Service Enhancement: UPS is restructuring its operations to better leverage its global network, enhancing consistency, scalability, and end-to-end logistics services for customers. The strategy reflects continued investment in premium supply chain and parcel solutions as UPS focuses on long-term growth (FREIGHTWAVES UPS).

LTL Updates:

  • LTL Rate Forecast: LTL contract rate forecasts declined 0.6 points from June, settling at an 8.6% increase excluding fuel. Forecasts then rebounded by 2.0 points from July to August, with the remainder of 2026 projected at an 8.6% increase, with 2027 outlooks showing significant increases in rates at 12.7% (FTR INTEL).
  • ‌Averitt Footprint Expansion: Averitt opened a 100,000-square-foot warehouse in Jackson, MS, expanding capacity across key Southeast freight corridors and strengthening its integrated LTL network. The facility provides flexible warehousing and fulfillment space to support seasonal inventory, overflow storage, and distribution need (Averitt).
  • Diesel Rates: National diesel prices decreased $0.053 from last week, averaging $5.599 per gallon, $1.865 higher than the same time last year, and $1.974 higher than two years ago. The Gulf Coast region saw the largest decrease, down $0.121 to $5.360 per gallon (U.S. EIA).

TL Updates:

  • ‌‌Market Activity: Load postings increased 11.9% from last week while spot truck postings were down 5.3% while the Load-to-Truck Ratio (LTR) increased for vans, flatbeds and reefers (DAT). The FreightWaves Pricing Power Index was flat from last week at 70, remaining in a carrier-favorable market (SONAR).
  • Rate Forecast: Spot rate forecasts showed a minor increase in comparison to last month, rising 0.5 points from the previous forecast to a 35.8% YOY increase for 2026, due to stabilization in all truckload modes. Contract rate expectations are showing a 10.0% increase for 2026, and the total truck rate outlook is showing 18.3% YOY increase for 2026 up from 18.2% previously forecasted (FTR INTEL).
  • Outbound Tender Rejection Index (OTRI): OTRI increased slightly to 12.91 from 12.87, but the market remains loose and orderly (SONAR). The expected EOM/Labor Day tightening has been limited, with rejection rates remaining well below summer highs; however, the shortened holiday week could create some localized capacity pressure.
  • ‌Dry Van: National dry van demand increased from last week, up 22.6% to an 11.7:1 LTR. The highest demand, with LTRs exceeding 5.5:1, is distributed broadly across the U.S., excluding MT and NE (DAT VAN D&C). National dry van spot rates are up $0.12 per mile from August to $3.02, led by the Midwest at $3.06 (DAT VAN RATES). The VOTRI declined to 13.08 from 13.50, signaling continued availability of dry-van capacity (SONAR). EOM demand has not created a meaningful surge, and the upcoming Labor Day weekend should create only temporary, localized pressure as drivers adjust schedules and facilities close.
  • ‌Dry Van Rate Forecast: 2026 loadings strengthened to a projected increase of 1.8% YOY with a shift towards automotive goods. The 2026 dry van spot rate forecast shows a 37.6% increase, while total truck rates show an 18.9% YOY increase excluding fuel (FTR INTEL).
  • ‌Flatbed: National flatbed demand increased from last week, up 16.8% to a 40.5:1 LTR. Elevated demand is spread across most of the U.S., with markets exceeding an 18:1 LTR, excluding IA, KS, ND, NE, NM, RI and WI (DAT FLAT D&C). National flatbed spot rates are up $0.15 per mile from August to $3.69, led by the Southeast at $3.80 (DAT FLAT RATES). FOTRI increased slightly to 15.69 from 15.29, suggesting modest tightening but nothing that indicates a major capacity shift (SONAR). Industrial and construction demand continue to provide a floor, while the muted EOM effect and late-summer slowdown are keeping the national flatbed market manageable.
  • ‌Flatbed Rate Forecast: The 2026 loadings outlook strengthened further from last month from 3.7% to a 4.1% YOY increase due to strong wood and industrial commodities along with strong volume in building materials. The 2026 flatbed spot rate forecast fell back slightly to a 35.3% increase, while the total truck rate shows an 18.9% YOY increase excluding fuel (FTR INTEL).
  • ‌Refrigerated: National reefer demand increased from last week, up 11.2% to a 22.9:1 LTR. The strongest demand is broadly distributed across the U.S. with LTRs exceeding 12:1, excluding AL, AZ, FL, GA, LA, SC and TX (DAT REF D&C). National reefer spot rates are down $0.10 per mile from August to $3.27, led by the Midwest at $3.84 (DAT REF RATES). ROTRI remains the clear outlier at 25.37 from 21.77, up significantly from the broader market despite the lack of overall tightening (SONAR). Seasonal food and produce demand continue to support reefer utilization, making this the mode most exposed to Labor Day disruptions and reduced driver availability.
  • ‌Reefer Rate Forecast: The 2026 reefer loadings outlook rolled back slightly from last month to a 1.7% YOY increase. The 2026 reefer spot rate forecast shows flat from last month at a 35.8% increase, while total truck rates decreased, showing a 17.3% YOY increase excluding fuel (FTR INTEL).

International Updates:

  • ‌Delivery Duty Paid (DDP) Disruption: Effective September 18, 2026, Customs and Border Protection will immediately void Importer Of Record (IOR) numbers with inaccurate or incomplete Form 5106 data, closing the loophole that allowed many China-shipper DDP arrangements. U.S. buyers must now appoint a compliant IOR and clear entries through a qualified U.S. customs broker (Federal Register).
  • FBX Trends: Lane specific container rates were up globally and in the 01 and 03 lanes from the previous week. The global FBX average increased 1% to $3,590. The FBX01 average increased 2% from last week to $7,621, while the FBX03 increased 2% to $9,791 (FREIGHTOS).
  • ‌Port of Los Angeles: Vessels are currently averaging 3.8 days at berth. The port reported a 23.62% YOY increase in volume from 19 scheduled vessels during the week of August 30, 2026. For the week of September 6, container volumes are projected to increase 30.85% YOY, with 26 scheduled vessels expected to move approximately 161,059 TEUs (PORT SIGNAL).
  • Embargoes:
    • ‌Tforce
      • Limited Service
      • Reno, NV