Weather Updates:

• ‌Storm-Driven Disruptions: Storm-Driven Disruptions: Severe storms will move from the Plains into the Midwest and Ohio Valley this week, bringing heavy rain and localized flooding. Expect freight delays and tighter capacity across key central and eastbound corridors as conditions disrupt network flow (Weather.gov).

‌Small Parcel Updates:

• ‌Weather and World Cup Disruption: Localized service disruptions are increasing, with USPS and FedEx flagging delays tied to major events (June 11–July 19 World Cup) and weather impacts, creating intermittent pickup and delivery delays across key metro markets rather than systemwide outages (FedEx; USPS).

LTL Updates:

• ‌‌‌LTL Rate Forecast: LTL contract rate forecasts climbed 3.5 points from April to May to an 8.1% increase excluding fuel, and 1.1 points further from May to June with the remaining 2026 outlook falling back to and 8.4% increase, with 2027 outlooks showing further significant rate creep at over 12% (FTR INTEL).
• ‌Diesel Rates: National diesel prices decreased $0.164 from last week, averaging $4.668 per gallon, $0.941 higher than the same time last year, and $0.855 higher than two years ago. California saw the largest decrease, down $0.288 to $6.180 per gallon (U.S. EIA).

TL Updates:

• Outbound Tender Rejection Index (OTRI): OTRI eased slightly to 16.86% this week from 17.26% last week, but overall market conditions remain tight (SONAR). While quarter-end shipping has largely wrapped up, the upcoming Fourth of July holiday is keeping capacity constrained as carriers manage shortened operating schedules and shippers move freight ahead of the holiday.
• ‌‌‌Market Activity: Load postings increased 12.3% from last week while spot truck postings were down 11.2% (DAT). The Load-to-Truck Ratio (LTR) increased for vans, flatbeds and reefers due to the upcoming holiday. The FreightWaves Pricing Power Index continues to hold steady at 70, in a carrier-favorable market, with a three-month outlook of 75 (SONAR).
• Rate Forecast: Spot rate forecasts showed another significant jump, rising 7.1 points from the previous forecast to a 35.3% YOY increase for 2026, driven by strength in all truckload modes. Contract rate expectations are showing a 10.1% increase for 2026, and the total truck rate outlook is showing 18.2% YOY increase for 2026 up from 14.4% previously forecasted (FTR INTEL).
• ‌Dry Van: National dry van demand increased from last week, up 37.3% to a 12.9:1 LTR. The highest demand, with LTRs exceeding 5.5:1, is broadly distributed across the U.S., excluding IA, IL, MI, NE, and NH (DAT VAN D&C). National dry van spot rates are up $0.06 per mile from June to $3.06, led by the Southeast at $3.20 (DAT VAN RATES). The VOTRI edged down to 17.87% this week from 18.02% the week prior, indicating dry van capacity remains tight despite a slight improvement (SONAR). Holiday freight and pre-Fourth shipping activity continue to support demand, and carriers remain selective on freight as they position equipment for the shortened work week.
• ‌Dry Van Rate Forecast: 2026 loadings weakened to a projected increase of 1.3% YOY with a shift away from food and automotive goods. The 2026 dry van spot rate forecast shows a 36.5% increase, while total truck rates show an 18.3% YOY increase excluding fuel (FTR INTEL).
• ‌Flatbed: National flatbed demand increased from last week, up 4.7% to a 56.9:1 LTR. Elevated demand is spread across most of the U.S., with markets exceeding an 18:1 LTR, excluding IA, MI, ND and RI (DAT FLAT D&C). National flatbed spot rates are down $0.09 per mile from June to $3.60, led by the Southeast at $4.04 (DAT FLAT RATES). FOTRI declined to 23.11% this week from 29.48% the week prior, signaling a noticeable easing in flatbed capacity (SONAR). While industrial and construction freight remains steady, quarter-end project activity has begun to wind down, allowing more equipment to return to the market. Even with the decline, localized flatbed markets can still tighten around large construction and infrastructure projects.
• ‌Flatbed Rate Forecast: The 2026 loadings outlook strengthened slightly from 3.6% to a 3.7% YOY increase due to strong metals and industrial commodities along with slight growth in building materials. The 2026 flatbed spot rate forecast jumped again to a 36.2% increase, while the total truck rate shows a 19.3% YOY increase excluding fuel (FTR INTEL).
• ‌Refrigerated: National reefer demand increased from last week, up 33.7% to an 24.5:1 LTR. The strongest demand is broadly distributed across the U.S. with LTRs exceeding 12:1, excluding CT, MA, MD, MI, NH, OR, RI, and VT (DAT REF D&C). National reefer spot rates are down $0.08 per mile from June to $3.30, led by the West at $3.52 (DAT REF RATES). The ROTRI increased slightly to 26.66% this week from 26.52% last week, remaining one of the strongest equipment segments (SONAR). Peak produce season and increased food and beverage shipments ahead of the Fourth of July continue to keep refrigerated capacity under pressure, especially in major growing regions.
• ‌Reefer Rate Forecast: The 2026 reefer loadings outlook improved further from last month from a 1.8% increase to a 1.9% YOY increase. The 2026 reefer spot rate forecast shows a 35.8% increase, while total truck rates show a 17.9% YOY increase excluding fuel (FTR INTEL).

‌International Updates:

• ‌FBX Trends: Lane specific container rates were up globally and in the 01 and 03 lanes from the previous week. The global FBX average increased 5% to $3,427. The FBX01 average increased 8% from last week to $6,175, while the FBX03 also increased 8% to $7,998 (FREIGHTOS).
• ‌Port of Los Angeles: Vessels are currently averaging 4.3 days at berth. The port reported a 14.85% YOY decrease in volume from 21 scheduled vessels during the week of June 28, 2026. For the week of July 5, container volumes are projected to increase 15.16% YOY, with 25 scheduled vessels expected to move approximately 136,396 TEUs (PORT SIGNAL).

Embargoes:

• ‌AAA Cooper terminals
  • STL
  • MSP
• Estes Express OB Midwest terminals
  • 62 – Cincinnati
  • 69 – Flint
  • 78 – Milwaukee
  • 86 – Louisville
  • 93 – Indianapolis
  • 94 – Fort Wayne
  • 111 – North Chicago
  • 118 – Kokomo
  • 128 – Elgin
  • 129 – Madison
  • 131 – Appleton
  • 159 – Racine
  • 186 – Sheboygan
  • 503 – Edwardsville