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Market Update 6.18.26

Weather Updates:

  • Storm-Driven Disruptions: Severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall developing across the Central Plains into the Midwest and Ohio Valley this weekend will elevate flash flooding risk and drive localized severe weather impacts, while the East sees scattered storms and the West remains mostly hot and dry. This pattern is expected to disrupt LTL and TL networks across key central and eastbound freight corridors, causing transit delays, localized capacity tightening, and near-term spot rate pressure as carriers reroute and reposition equipment (Weather.gov).

‌Small Parcel Updates:

  • Surcharge Momentum: Carrier pricing remains volatile, with UPS and FedEx continuing to recalibrate fuel surcharges on a weekly basis and recent international fuel/surge fee increases still flowing through pricing, reinforcing a dynamic, fuel‑linked cost environment rather than stable rate cycles (FedExUPS). On the network side, USPS is flagging active service disruptions tied to weather and major events, while its new exclusive last‑mile agreement with DHL and ongoing structural changes (including pricing updates ahead of July) point to continued shifts in last‑mile routing and cost dynamics across the parcel ecosystem (USPS).

LTL Updates:

  • ‌Delay of Game: The opening of the Gordie Howe International Bridge (Detroit–Windsor) has been delayed from its planned June 12 launch as U.S. and Canadian officials work through unresolved political and financial issues, particularly around toll revenue sharing. The delay prolongs reliance on the already congested Ambassador Bridge corridor, postponing expected gains in cross-border truck capacity and efficiency that were projected to significantly reduce transit times and costs (Truckindive).
  • ‌Diesel Rates: National diesel prices decreased $0.151 from last week, averaging $5.059 per gallon (U.S. EIA), $1.488 higher than the same time last year, and $1.324 higher than two years ago. The California region saw the largest decrease, down $0.227 to $6.713 per gallon.

TL Updates:

  • ‌Outbound Tender Rejection Index (OTRI): OTRI eased to 16.54% this week from 17.20% last week, indicating a slight loosening in overall truckload capacity (SONAR). While rejection rates declined modestly across most equipment types, they remain well above historical averages, suggesting the market continues to favor carriers as seasonal freight demand remains healthy.
  • Market Activity: Load postings decreased 8.3% from last week while spot truck postings were flat (DAT). The Load-to-Truck Ratio (LTR) decreased for vans, flatbeds, and reefers. The FreightWaves Pricing Power Index continues to hold steady at 70, in a carrier-favorable market, with a three-month outlook of 75 (SONAR).
  • ‌Dry Van: National dry van demand decreased from last week, down 13.7% to an 8.7:1 LTR. The highest demand, with LTRs exceeding 5.5:1, is broadly distributed across the U.S., excluding IL, MT, ND, NH and RI (DAT VAN D&C). National dry van spot rates are up $0.13 per mile from May to $3.02, led by the Southeast at $3.19 (DAT VAN RATES). The VOTRI slipped to 17.42% this week from 17.90% the week prior, signaling a slight improvement in dry van capacity (SONAR). Even with the decline, rejection rates remain elevated as summer freight demand and steady retail replenishment continue to support a relatively tight van market.
  • Flatbed: National flatbed demand decreased this week, down 10.1% to a 60.7:1 LTR. Elevated demand is spread across most of the U.S., with markets exceeding an 18:1 LTR, excluding ND (DAT FLAT D&C). National flatbed spot rates are up $0.06 per mile from May to $3.72, led by the Southeast at $4.05 (DAT FLAT RATES). FOTRI decreased to 30.63% this week from 32.48% the week prior, continuing a gradual pullback from recent highs (SONAR). While rejection rates softened, flatbed capacity remains constrained as construction activity. Infrastructure projects, and industrial freight continue to provide a solid baseline of demand heading into the summer months.
  • Refrigerated: National reefer demand decreased from last week, down 1.8% to a 16.6:1 LTR. The strongest demand is broadly distributed across the U.S. with LTRs exceeding 12:1, excluding CT, MA, MD, NH, NJ, OR, and WA (DAT REF D&C).  National reefer spot rates are up $0.04 per mile from May to an average of $3.39, led by the Midwest and the South at $3.54 (DAT REF RATES). The ROTRI declined to 23.66% this week from 25.23% last week, reflecting a modest easing in refrigerated capacity (SONAR). Reefer markets remain tight compared to historical norms, with produce season still driving strong freight volumes in key growing regions, though capacity has begun to rebound after recent peak disruptions.

‌International Updates:

  • FBX Trends: Lane specific container rates were up globally and in the 03 lane from the previous week. The global FBX average increased 1% to $2,889. The FBX01 average was flat from last week at $4,836, while the FBX03 increased 4% to $6,558 (FREIGHTOS).
  • ‌Port of Los Angeles: Vessels are currently averaging 3.9 days at berth. The port reported a 10.47% YOY increase in volume from 22 scheduled vessels during the week of June 14, 2026. For the week of June 21, container volumes are projected to decrease 9.51% YOY, with 23 scheduled vessels expected to move approximately 119,728 TEUs (PORT SIGNAL).

Embargoes:

  • ‌AAA Cooper
    • STL Terminal
  • Estes Express (OB Midwest Terminals)
    • 62 – Cincinnati
    • 69 – Flint
    • 78 – Milwaukee
    • 86 – Louisville
    • 93 – Indianapolis
    • 94 – Fort Wayne
    • 111 – North Chicago
    • 118 – Kokomo
    • 128 – Elgin
    • 129 – Madison
    • 131 – Appleton
    • 159 – Racine
    • 186 – Sheboygan
    • 503 – Edwardsville