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Market Update 6.11.26

Weather Updates:

  • Severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall across the Plains, Midwest, and into the Mississippi/Ohio/Tennessee Valleys this weekend will drive flooding risks, while the East sees scattered storms and the West remains mostly hot and dry, leading to LTL and TL service disruptions and transit delays across key central freight corridors with short-term capacity tightening and spot rate pressure as carriers reroute and reposition equipment.

‌Small Parcel Updates:

  • ‌DHL and USPS Deal: DHL eCommerce and USPS finalized a $10B+ multiyear exclusive deal making USPS the sole U.S. last-mile provider, expanding DHL’s reach and deepening their long-term partnership (USPS+DHL). The agreement should boost USPS parcel volumes while reinforcing consolidation trends in last-mile delivery as shippers prioritize scale, coverage, and reliability.

LTL Updates:

  • LTL Increases: LTL carriers are moving away from the traditional once-a-year GRI cycle, with ArcBest (ABF RATES) pushing through a roughly 6% increase six weeks earlier than usual as pricing becomes more responsive to market demand; expect other carriers to follow with similar general increases, while customer-specific pricing (CSP) adjustments will continue to align with existing contract timelines.
  • Diesel Rates: National diesel prices decreased $0.140 from last week, averaging $5.210 per gallon (U.S. EIA), $1.739 higher than the same time last year, and $1.552 higher than two years ago. The Midwest region saw the largest decrease, down $0.210 to $5.182 per gallon.

TL Updates:

  • Outbound Tender Rejection Index (OTRI): OTRI increased to 17.20% this week from 16.99% last week, continuing to signal a tightening truckload market (SONAR). While the increase was modest, rejection rates remain at some of the highest levels seen this year, suggesting carriers continue to have leverage in many markets. Seasonal produce activity, summer shipping demand, and capacity that has not fully normalized following Roadcheck continue to support elevated rejection rates across the network.
  • ‌‌Market Activity: Load postings increased 2.3% from last week while spot truck postings increased by 23.4% (DAT). The Load-to-Truck Ratio (LTR) decreased for vans, flatbeds, and reefers. The FreightWaves Pricing Power Index continues to hold steady at 70, in a carrier-favorable market, with a three-month outlook of 75 (SONAR).
  • ‌Dry Van: National dry van demand decreased from last week, down 23.0% to a 10.1:1 LTR. The highest demand with LTRs exceeding 5.5:1 is broadly distributed across the U.S., excluding IL, MT, ND, NH and RI (DAT VAN D&C). National dry van spot rates are up $0.15 per mile from May to $3.04, led by the Southeast at $3.17 (DAT VAN RATES). The VOTRI increased to 17.90% this week from 17.72% the week prior, indicating that dry van capacity remains tight across much of the country (SONAR). Seasonal retail replenishment, summer consumer demand, and end-of-quarter inventory movements are keeping pressure on available capacity. Carriers continue to have options, making service and scheduling flexibility increasingly important.
  • Flatbed: National flatbed demand decreased this week, down 10.4% to a 67.5:1 LTR. Elevated demand is spread across most of the U.S., with markets exceeding an 18:1 LTR, excluding ND (DAT FLAT D&C). National flatbed spot rates are up $0.09 per mile from May to $3.75, led by the Southeast at $4.04 (DAT FLAT RATES).  FOTRI declined to 32.48% this week from 38.46% the week prior, though rejection rates remain historically elevated (SONAR). The decrease suggests some flatbed capacity has returned to the market following recent seasonal disruptions, but conditions still favor carriers in many industrial and construction-heavy freight lanes. Despite the week-over-week decline, flatbed remains one of the tightest equipment segments in the truckload market.
  • Refrigerated: National reefer demand decreased from last week, down 13.0% to a 16.9:1 LTR. The strongest demand is broadly distributed across the U.S. with LTRs exceeding 12:1, excluding CT, MA, MD, NH, NJ, OR, and WA (DAT REF D&C).  National reefer spot rates are up $0.06 per mile from May to an average of $3.41, led by the South at $3.61 (DAT REF RATES). The ROTRI climbed to 25.23% this week from 23.93% last week, reflecting continued tightening in temperature-controlled capacity (SONAR). Peak produce season remains a major driver, particularly in key growing regions where freight demand is competing for a limited pool of reefer equipment. As produce volumes build further into June, reefer markets are likely to remain highly competitive.

‌International Updates:

  • FBX Trends: Lane specific container rates were up globally and in the 01 and 03 lanes from the previous week. The global FBX average increased 28% to $2,857. The FBX01 average increased 51% to $4,836, while the FBX03 increased 25% to $6,336 (FREIGHTOS).
  • Port of Los Angeles: Vessels are currently averaging 3.9 days at berth. The port reported a 29% YOY increase in volume from 21 scheduled vessels during the week of June 7, 2026. For the week of June 14, container volumes are projected to increase 7.64% YOY, with 22 scheduled vessels expected to move approximately 120,399 TEUs (PORT SIGNAL).

Embargoes:

  • ‌AAA Cooper terminals 

STL