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Market Update 8.6.26

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Weather:

  • ‌Heat and Storm-Driven Disruptions: Heat concerns continue this week, with above-normal temperatures across much of the West, South, and central U.S., while scattered heavy rainfall and localized flooding risks persist in portions of the East, Southeast, and Upper Midwest. These conditions may create localized freight delays and network inefficiencies, but widespread transportation disruptions are not expected (Weather.gov).

Small Parcel Updates:

  • UPS Digital Enhancements: UPS introduced new digital tools for SMB shippers, including a real-time pickup dashboard, faster shipment creation, and enhanced mobile capabilities to improve visibility and simplify shipping workflows. Using UPS Smart Pickup allows businesses to schedule pickups based on actual shipping activity, potentially reducing pickup costs by up to 50% compared to daily scheduled service (UPS SMB).
  • FedEx Automation Investment: FedEx is expanding the deployment of AI-powered trailer-loading robots at its Hagerstown, Maryland hub after several years of testing, marking a significant step toward automating one of the most labor-intensive tasks in parcel operations. The company believes the technology can improve worker safety, loading consistency, and network efficiency, while supporting broader efforts to build a more automated and resilient transportation network (FedEx AI).

LTL Updates:

  • ‌‌‌LTL Rate Forecast: LTL contract rate forecasts fell 1.3 points from June to July to a 7.2% increase excluding fuel, with the remaining 2026 outlook falling further back to and 8.1% increase, with 2027 outlooks showing further significant rate creep at 13.1% (FTR INTEL).
  • Dohrn Network Optimization: Midwest LTL carrier Dohrn has completed a major network transformation and rebranded following the integration of Sutton Transport and US Special Delivery, consolidating 42 terminals into a streamlined 24-terminal network that significantly expands coverage across key Midwestern metropolitan markets. The overhaul increased direct linehaul routes by 42% and door capacity by 39%, helping drive 97% on-time performance and 99% exception-free service, underscoring the ongoing trend of regional LTL carriers investing in network density, scale, and service reliability to compete more effectively (CCJ Digital).
  • Diesel Rates: National diesel prices increased $0.035 from last week, averaging $5.348 per gallon, $1.548 higher than the same time last year, and $1.593 higher than two years ago. The Lower Atlantic region saw the only decrease, down $0.087 to $5.168 per gallon (U.S. EIA).

TL Updates:

  • ‌‌Market Activity: Load postings decreased 0.8% from last week while spot truck postings were down 7.5% (DAT). The Load-to-Truck Ratio (LTR) increased for vans, flatbeds and reefers. The FreightWaves Pricing Power Index fell 7 points to 72 from last week but remains solidly in a carrier-favorable market (SONAR).
  • Outbound Tender Rejection Index (OTRI): The freight market remained relatively stable this week, with the national OTRI slipping slightly to 13.46 from 13.87 last week (SONAR). Capacity continues to loosen gradually as the end-of-month shipping push had a muted impact, leaving rejection rates trending lower across all major equipment types. Overall market conditions remain balanced, with localized pockets of tightness rather than widespread capacity constraints.
  • Rate Forecast: Spot rate forecasts showed stabilization after the previous months significant jump, rising 0.8 points from the previous forecast to a 36.1% YOY increase for 2026, driven by strengthening flatbed and dry van outlooks, and softening refrigerated forecasts. Contract rate expectations are showing a 9.9% increase for 2026, and the total truck rate outlook is showing 18.3% YOY increase for 2026 up from 18.2% previously forecasted (FTR INTEL).
  • ‌Dry Van: National dry van demand increased from last week, up 7.7% to a 10.7:1 LTR. The highest demand, with LTRs exceeding 5.5:1, is distributed across the entire U.S. (DAT VAN D&C). National dry van spot rates are down $0.01 per mile from July to $3.00, led by the Central South at $3.10 (DAT VAN RATES). The VOTRI eased to 14.43 this week from 14.86 last week, reflecting continued improvement in dry van capacity (SONAR). The expected end-of-month freight surge was relatively subdued, allowing carriers to absorb additional volume without significantly increasing tender rejections. While contract compliance has improved, stronger retail and distribution markets continue to support spot opportunities in select regions.
  • Dry Van Rate Forecast: 2026 loadings strengthened to a projected increase of 1.6% YOY with a shift back towards automotive goods and food. The 2026 dry van spot rate forecast is up 0.1 points to a 37.6% increase, while total truck rates are up 0.3 points to 18.6% YOY increase excluding fuel (FTR INTEL).
  • ‌Flatbed: National flatbed demand increased from last week, up 1.5% to a 39.7:1 LTR. Elevated demand is spread across most of the U.S., with markets exceeding an 18:1 LTR, excluding DE, IA, MI, ND and RI (DAT FLAT D&C). National flatbed spot rates are down $0.06 per mile from July to $3.58, led by the Southeast at $3.91 (DAT FLAT RATES). FOTRI edged down to 18.03 this week from 18.37 last week, continuing the gradual moderation seen over the past month (SONAR). Industrial, construction, and infrastructure-related freight continue to provide a steady demand base, but improved truck availability has reduced pressure on capacity. Flatbed markets remain healthier than historical averages, though pricing and capacity have become increasingly lane-specific rather than broadly constrained.
  • ‌Flatbed Rate Forecast: The 2026 loadings outlook remained level at a 3.7% YOY increase due to strong building materials and metals offsetting reduced industrial and wood demand. The 2026 flatbed spot rate forecast is up 0.1 points to a 36.3% increase, while the total truck rate fell 0.1 points a 19.2% YOY increase excluding fuel (FTR INTEL).
  • ‌Refrigerated: National reefer demand increased from last week, up 10.4% to a 18.9:1 LTR. The strongest demand is broadly distributed across the U.S. with LTRs exceeding 12:1, excluding CT, FL, GA, LA and RI (DAT REF D&C). National reefer spot rates are down $0.04 per mile from July to $3.37, led by the Midwest at $3.60 (DAT REF RATES). The ROTRI declined slightly to 21.72 from 22.13 last week but remains the strongest-performing mode (SONAR). Seasonal produce volumes continue to support reefer demand, although harvest activity is beginning to normalize in some growing regions. Reefer capacity remains comparatively tight, particularly on lanes tied to fresh food distribution and temperature-sensitive freight.
  • ‌Reefer Rate Forecast: The 2026 reefer loadings outlook fell back from last month from a 1.9% increase to a 1.8% YOY increase, with dairy offsetting weaker refrigerated food demand. The 2026 reefer spot rate forecast is down 0.8 points to a 35.0% increase, while total truck rates show a decrease of 0.6 points to a 17.3% YOY increase excluding fuel (FTR INTEL).

International Updates:

  • ‌FBX Trends: Lane specific container rates were down globally and in the 01 lane while the 03 lane was up slightly from the previous week. The global FBX average decreased 1% to $3,628. The FBX01 average decreased 1% from last week to $6,129, while the FBX03 increased <1% to $9,012 (FREIGHTOS).
  • ‌Port of Los Angeles: Vessels are currently averaging 4.0 days at berth. The port reported a 2.08% YOY increase in volume from 21 scheduled vessels during the week of August 2, 2026. For the week of August 9, container volumes are projected to increase 24.04% YOY, with 26 vessels scheduled and projected to move 140,498 TEUs (PORT SIGNAL).

Embargoes:

  • ‌AAA Cooper terminals
    • STL
    • MSP

 

  • TForce Freight 
    • St. Louis, MO
    • Spokane, WA
  • ‌Limited Service