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Market Update 6.4.26

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Weather Updates:

  • The Atlantic hurricane season has officially begun and runs through November. The 2026 season is expected to have a below-average number of storms this season. For more information on how to be Hurricane ready go to NOAA Hurricane Preparedness Week.

Small Parcel Updates:

  • FedEx LTL and Parcel Separation: FedEx finalized the June 1 spin-off of its Freight division, tightening its focus on core parcel and express operations and potentially increasing pressure on pricing discipline and margin performance without the LTL segment as a stabilizer.

LTL Updates:

  • Mountain Valley Focuses: Mountain Valley Express (MTVL) is narrowing operations to its core footprint in AZ, CA, and NV, discontinuing services in CO, ID, OK, OR, TX, UT, and WA. Any shipments already in the extended network will proceed to delivery as the carrier realigns its operations to its main service areas.
  • ‌‌‌LTL Rate Forecast: LTL contract rate forecasts climbed 2 points from April to May to a 5.2% increase excluding fuel, however, the long-term outlook for 2026 elevated 0.6 points at a 7.2% increase, with 2027 outlooks showing further rate creep at over 10% (FTR INTEL).
  • Diesel Rates: National diesel prices decreased $0.173 from last week, averaging $5.350 per gallon (U.S. EIA), $1.899 higher than the same time last year, and $1.624 higher than two years ago. The Midwest region saw the largest decrease, down $0.231 to $5.392 per gallon.

TL Updates:

  • Outbound Tender Rejection Index (OTRI): OTRI remained elevated this week at 16.99, up from 15.73 the week prior, signaling continued tightening across the truckload market (SONAR). Strength was broad-based across all major equipment types, with van, reefer, and flatbed rejections all moving higher. Seasonal freight patterns, end-of-month freight carryover, and ongoing produce activity continue to support a tighter capacity environment as we move into June.
  • ‌‌Market Activity: Load postings decreased 12.9% from last week while spot truck postings decreased by 18.3% (DAT). The Load-to-Truck Ratio (LTR) increased for vans and flatbeds but decreased for reefers. The FreightWaves Pricing Power Index continues to hold steady at 70, in a carrier-favorable market, with a three-month outlook of 75 (SONAR).
  • Rate Forecast: Spot rate forecasts showed another significant jump, rising 9.2 points from the previous forecast to a 28.2% YOY increase for 2026, driven by strength in all truckload modes. Contract rate expectations are showing a 6.7% increase for 2026, and the total truck rate outlook is showing 14.4% YOY increase for 2026 up from 10.4% previously forecasted (FTR INTEL).
  • ‌Dry Van: National dry van demand increased from last week, up 14.4% to a 13.:1 LTR. The highest demand with LTRs exceeding 5.5:1 is broadly distributed across the U.S., excluding IL, MT, ND, NH and RI (DAT VAN D&C). National dry van spot rates are up $0.13 per mile from May to $3.02, led by the Midwest and Southeast at $3.03 (DAT VAN RATES). The VOTRI increased this week, rising to 17.72 from 16.39 the week prior, indicating continued tightening in dry van capacity (SONAR). Strong post-holiday freight volumes and improving demand across retail and consumer goods networks appear to be driving increased carrier selectivity. The rise suggests carriers are maintaining leverage as network capacity remains constrained in key markets.
  • ‌Dry Van Rate Forecast: 2026 loadings strengthened to a projected increase of 1.7% YOY with a shift away from food and packaged goods further towards automotive. The 2026 dry van spot rate forecast shows a 29.6% increase, while total truck rates show a 14.6% YOY increase excluding fuel (FTR INTEL).
  • ‌Flatbed: National flatbed demand increased this week, up 9.6% to a 75.4:1 LTR. Elevated demand is spread across most of the U.S., with markets exceeding an 18:1 LTR, excluding ND (DAT FLAT D&C). National flatbed spot rates are up $0.04 per mile from May to $3.69, led by the Southeast at $3.97 (DAT FLAT RATES).  FOTRI moved higher this week, increasing to 38.46 from 35.96 the week prior, signaling tightening flatbed capacity (SONAR). Seasonal construction, infrastructure, and industrial freight demand continue to support elevated rejection levels, while equipment availability remains challenged in several regions. The increase suggests flatbed capacity remains considerably tighter than historical norms for this time of year.
  • ‌Flatbed Rate Forecast: The 2026 loadings outlook strengthened from 3.2% to a 3.6% YOY increase due to further strength in building materials. The 2026 flatbed spot rate forecast jumped higher to a 27.8% increase, while the total truck rate shows a 15.2% YOY increase excluding fuel (FTR INTEL).
  • ‌Refrigerated: National reefer demand decreased from last week, down 9.4% to a 21.5:1 LTR. The strongest demand is broadly distributed across the U.S. with LTRs exceeding 12:1, excluding CT, MA, MD, NH, NJ, OR, and WA (DAT REF D&C).  National reefer spot rates are up $0.01 per mile from May to an average of $3.36, led by the South at $3.56 (DAT REF RATES). The ROTRI climbed to 23.93 from 21.89 the week prior, reflecting continued tightening in reefer capacity as produce season accelerates across major growing regions (SONAR). Demand for temperature-controlled equipment remains strong, particularly in the Southeast, California, and border markets, leading to increased competition for available trucks. The sustained increase indicates produce-related freight is continuing to place significant upward pressure on refrigerated networks.
  • ‌Reefer Rate Forecast: The 2026 reefer loadings outlook improved slightly from last month from a 1.7% increase to a 1.8% YOY increase, due to strengthening in food commodities. The 2026 reefer spot rate forecast shows a 30.7% increase, while total truck rates show a 14.9% YOY increase excluding fuel (FTR INTEL).

International Updates:

  • ‌FBX Trends: Lane specific container rates were up globally and in the 01 and 03 lanes from the previous week. The global FBX average increased 2% to $2,235. The FBX01 average increased <1% to $3,197, while the FBX03 increased 4% to $5,074 (FREIGHTOS).
  • ‌Port of Los Angeles: Vessels are currently averaging 3.8 days at berth. The port reported an 11.16% YOY increase in volume from 20 scheduled vessels during the week of May 31, 2026. For the week of June 7, container volumes are projected to increase 50.08% YOY, with 23 scheduled vessels expected to move approximately 141,799 TEUs (PORT SIGNAL).

Embargoes:

  • ‌AAA Cooper terminals

STL