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Market Update 10.1.26

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Weather:

  • ‌Weather Risk: Heavy rainfall and flooding remain the primary weather concerns this week, with elevated impacts across portions of the Southern Plains, Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and Southeast as multiple regions face moderate excessive rainfall risks. Meanwhile, king tide-driven coastal flooding is affecting South Florida, with flood advisories in place and localized roadway impacts reported, creating the potential for localized freight delays and network inefficiencies in affected coastal corridors (Weather.gov).

Small Parcel Updates:

  • Peak Season Surcharges: Major parcel carriers are implementing peak-season pricing programs, with UPS and FedEx surcharges beginning Sept. 28, USPS holiday pricing taking effect Oct. 4, and all programs running through Jan. 17, 2027. Shippers should expect the greatest cost pressure from late November through December as carriers add demand-based fees to manage peak holiday volumes and network capacity (FedEx; UPS; USPS).

LTL Updates:

  • LTL Rate Forecast: LTL contract rates continued to trend upward through September 2026, reaching a 12.9% increase excluding fuel, 0.1 points higher than August. Forecasts also strengthened, with 2026 expectations rising to 9.1% and 2027 projected to see further pricing pressure at 14.1% (FTR INTEL).
  • ‌Diesel Rates: National diesel prices decreased $0.147 from last week, averaging $6.382 per gallon, $2.628 higher than the same time last year, and $2.838 higher than two years ago. The Gulf Coast region saw the largest decrease, down $0.222 to $5.955 per gallon (U.S. EIA).

TL Updates:

  • ‌‌Market Activity: Load postings increased 0.8% from last week and spot truck postings were up 0.5% while the Load-to-Truck Ratio (LTR) increased for flatbeds and vans but decreased for reefers (DAT). The FreightWaves Pricing Power Index fell 2 points from last week to 74, remaining in a carrier-favorable market (SONAR).
  • ‌Rate Forecast: Spot rate forecasts showed a minor increase in comparison to last month, rising 0.2 points from the previous forecast to a 36.0% YOY increase for 2026, due to minor strengthening in all truckload modes. Contract rate expectations are showing a 12.0% increase for 2026, and the total truck rate outlook is showing 19.7% YOY increase for 2026 up from 18.3% previously forecasted (FTR INTEL).
  • ‌Outbound Tender Rejection Index (OTRI): OTRI decreased to 12.28 from 12.63, showing another modest tightening in the final week of Q3 (SONAR). EOQ is the key near-term catalyst as shippers push to close the quarter, which creates additional volume and capacity pressure. The broader market remains relatively balanced, but reduced excess capacity makes the market more sensitive to short-term volume spikes.
  • ‌Dry Van: National dry van demand increased from last week, up 2.0% to a 10.3:1 LTR for August. The highest demand, with LTRs exceeding 16.6:1, is in DE, MD, ME, NJ, NY, OR, PA, VT and WA. National dry van spot rates are up $0.11 per mile from August to $3.00, led by the Midwest at $3.22 (DAT TRENDLINES). The VOTRI decreased to 12.78 from 13.28, indicating some loosening in the van market heading into EOQ (SONAR). Dry van remains relatively balanced nationally, but quarter-end shipping activity is creating tighter pockets and increased carrier rates.
  • ‌Dry Van Rate Forecast: 2026 loadings remain unchanged at a projected increase of 1.8% YOY with strength in automotive goods offsetting other commodities. The 2026 dry van spot rate forecast shows a 38.1% increase, while total truck rates show a 20.8% YOY increase excluding fuel. The 2027 forecast shows an additional 10.9% increase, up from 8.4% previously reported (FTR INTEL).
  • ‌Flatbed: National flatbed demand increased from last week, up 3.1% to a 36:1 LTR for August. The highest demand, with LTRs exceeding 87.6:1, is in AL, AR, ID and OR. National flatbed spot rates are up $0.07 per mile from August to $3.61, led by the Southeast at $3.84 (DAT TRENDLINES). FOTRI jumped back up to 17.58 from 14.96, indicating a tightening of flatbed capacity after last week’s loosening (SONAR). Seasonal construction activity is moderating, but manufacturing, energy and infrastructure projects continue to support underlying flatbed demand.
  • ‌Flatbed Rate Forecast: The 2026 loadings outlook strengthened further from last month, increasing from 4.1% to 4.4% YOY due to higher demand for building materials and wood commodities. The 2026 flatbed spot rate forecast fell back slightly to a 35.2% increase, while the total truck rate shows an 19.8% YOY increase excluding fuel. The 2027 forecast is showing an additional 9.4% increase, up from 7.1% previously reported (FTR INTEL).
  • ‌Refrigerated: National reefer demand decreased from last week, down 2.6% to a 20:1 LTR for August. The strongest demand is in DE and VT at over a 52:1 LTR. National reefer spot rates are up $0.23 per mile from August to $3.62, led by the Midwest at $4.10 (DAT TRENDLINES). ROTRI declined to 21.94 from 22.26, continuing to show additional capacity entering the reefer market (SONAR). Seasonal produce activity continues to shift toward northern markets, keeping regional markets tight as southern produce demand fades.
  • ‌Reefer Rate Forecast: The 2026 reefer loadings remained flat at a 1.7% YOY increase, with dairy products continuing to drive the demand. The 2026 reefer spot rate forecast is up 0.1 points from last month to a 35.9% increase, while total truck rates increased, showing an 18.1% YOY increase excluding fuel. The 2027 forecast is showing an additional 7.9% increase, up from 7.0% previously reported (FTR INTEL).

International Updates:

  • FBX Trends: Lane-specific container rates were down globally, up in FBX02 lane and flat in the FBX03 lane from the previous week. The global FBX average decreased 1% to $3,380. The FBX01 average increased 4% from last week to $8,411 and the FBX03 remained flat at $9,606 (FREIGHTOS).
  • ‌Port of Los Angeles: Vessels are currently averaging 4.6 days at berth. The port reported a 41.57% YOY increase in volume from 23 scheduled vessels during the week of September 27, 2026. For the week of October 4, container volumes are projected to increase 44.33% YOY, with 21 scheduled vessels expected to move about 106,129 TEUs (PORT SIGNAL).

Embargoes:

  • There are no embargoes currently impacting our freight network